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630阅读网>美国世纪大萧条的原因和启示 > 第23章(第1页)

第23章(第1页)

[1]cullenurphy,arewero?thefallofanepireandthefateofarica(newyork:arerbooks,2007)

[2]paulkennedy,theriseandfallofthegreatpowers:enoic插nandilitarynflictaongthegreatpowersfro1500to2000(newyork:randohoe,1987)

[3]ofurse,therewereanyorecaesofthisplexphenononseerasayaullen,rruptionandthedecleofro(newhaven:yaleuniversitypress,1988)

[4]seenicholaskristof,&ot;we&39;renotno1!we&39;renotno1!&ot;newyorktis,april3,2014

[5]&ot;thejobsache,&ot;theenoist,april13,2013

[6]klaschwabandxaviersala-i-art,theglobalpetitivenessreport2013-14(davos:worldenoicforu,2013)niallfergon,&ot;howaricalostitsway,&ot;wallstreetjournal,june7,2013

[7]technicallyreverableshaleoilandshalegasreurces:anassessntof137shaleforations41untriesoutsidetheunitedstates(waton,dc:energyrationancy,2013),p3

[8]2014globalr≈dfundgforecast(b:batelleorialstitute,2014)

[9]patentstatistics插rt,calendaryears1963-2013(waton,dc:theunitedstatespatentandtradearkoffice)

[10]foraoreoptiisticviewofaricansavgs,seeri插rdnoper,&ot;globalibalances:globalization,deography,andstaability,&ot;journalofenoicperspectives22,sur2008,p95

[11]niallfergon,&ot;anepireatrisk,&ot;newsweek,deceber7,2009,p28;and&ot;agreekcrisisisgtoarica,&ot;fancialtis,february11,2010seeal,franciswarnock,&ot;howdanroisgovernntdebt?theriskofasuddenspiketerestrates,&ot;uncilonforeignrelationsreport,june2010;availableat:

[12]stituteofhighereducationofshanghaijiaotonguniversity,&ot;acadeicrankgoftheworlduniversities-2009&ot;;availableat:

[13]&ot;arehigherandlowerperforgstudentsakggas?&ot;thenation&39;sreportcard(waton,dc:nationalcenterforeducationstatistics,departntofeducation,2013);availableat:

[14]viktóriakisandsionfield,tiforthetoreskill?whatthesurveyofadultskillssays(waton,dc:anizationforenoicoperationanddevelopnt,2013),p12

[15]sadillon,&ot;anynationspassgeducation,expertsays,&ot;newyorktis,arch10,2010

[16]&ot;githebottle,&ot;theenoist,noveber26,2013

[17]eduardoporter,&ot;arelentlesswidengofdisparitywealth,&ot;newyorktis,arch12,2014;&ot;classarica:obilityasured,theenoist,february1,2014;lawrencesurs,&ot;ealitygoesbeyonddollarsandcents,&ot;watonpost,june8,2014

[18]francisfukuyaa,&ot;aricanpoweriswangbecaewatonwon&39;tsarrelg,&ot;thenewrepublic,arch10,2014

[19]sarahbder,&ot;polarizedwegovern?&ot;waton,dc,brookgscenterforeffectivepublianant,ay2014,p18

[20]pewresearchcenterforthepeopleandthepress,&ot;politicalpolarizationthearicanpublic,&ot;june12,2014

[21]henrykissr,&ot;aricaattheapex,&ot;thenationalterest,sur2001,p15

[22]hart-teeterpollfortheuncilofexcellencegovernnt,reportedthewatonpost,arch24,1997seealseyourartlipsetandwilliaschneider,thenfidencegap(baltiore:johnshopksuniversitypress,1987)andjeffreyjones,&ot;trtgovernntreaslow,&ot;galp,septeber18,2008

[23]harrispoll,1966-2011,&ot;nfidencengressandsupreurtdropstolowestlevelanyyears,&ot;ay18,2011

[24]josephsnye,philipzelikow,anddavidkg,eds,whypeopledon&39;ttrtgovernnt(cabrid,a:harvarduniversitypress,1996)

[25]departntofthetreasury,updateonreducgthefederaltaxgapandiprovgvontarypliance(waton,dc:july8,2009)&ot;eploynttaxevasion&ot;,crialvestigationanantrationsyste(waton,dc:ternalrevenueservice,october2013)

[26]theworldbank,governanceatters2009:worldwidegovernancedicators,1996-2008(waton,dc:theworldbank,2009)

[27]stevenhols,&ot;defygforecasts,censresponseendsdeclgtrend,&ot;newyorktis,septeber20,2000;saroberts,&ot;13aricansfailedtoreturncensfors,&ot;newyorktis,april17,2010

[28]robertputna,bowlgalone:thellapseandrevivalofaricanunity(newyork:sion≈schter,2000);seealbettertother:restorgthearicanunity(newyork:sion≈schter,2003)

[29]&ot;what&39;swrongwaton,&ot;theenoist,february29,2010,p11

[30]davidfru,&ot;cratheparty,&ot;foreignaffairs935,septeberoctober2014,p46

第六章 权力转移和全球化的复杂性

作为全球信息革命的结果,21世纪正发生着两个巨大的权力转移:国家之间从西向东的权力转移和从政府到非国家行为体的实力扩散。[1]

我在前面谈到的第一种转移‐‐国家之间的权力转移‐‐可能不会在未来的三十年里结束美国在全球均势的核心地位。

目前还不太清楚这种转移是否会摧毁前面提到的被阿米塔夫&iddot;阿查亚称为&ldo;美国的世界秩序&rdo;的国际体制,他的一家影院多个影厅的区域对话隐喻假设了一种架构,但却没有包括如何来提供和维护这样一种架构的细节。中国是否会加入并提供霸权稳定论者们所寻找的公共物品?毫无疑问,中国从世界贸易组织和国际货币基金组织这样的开放机构中受益匪浅,但中国的记录远不是尽善尽美的。像美国在20世纪两次世界大战中间的那段时期那样,只要有人在开车,中国就对搭便车的诱惑来者不拒。我们也不太可能会看到其他新兴大国所提供的全球公共物品。

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